How the Utah Royals Started Their Season

Be prepared to hold onto your hats, because I’m about to talk moderately positively about the Utah Royals’ start to a season. It’s only been five games, yes, but there’s a lot to like about URFC is playing. The team has put together six(ish) halves of #goodsoccer, picked up 7 points, and currently sit in 7th place in the NWSL. Which is, notably, both a playoff position and a height URFC 2.0 hasn’t reached before. So how have they been doing that, and what else is there to improve on?

~~~All stats from FotMob/FBRef~~~

After spending the majority of two seasons struggling to score a goal, Jimmy Coenraets has seemingly designed a functional offense. The Royals have created the 4th most expected goals (xG) in the league, 8.1. That does include two penalties, each worth around 0.75 xG, but URFC’s xG is still league average (6.6) if you take those out. Not to toot my own horn, but the reason for this drastic improvement appears to be the thing I have been screaming about for over a year: getting into the opponent’s penalty box. The Royals have 108 box touches in 5 games, which is already almost a third of the box touches they achieved last season in 26 games, 372. Getting closer to the goals leads to better chance creation, who woulda thunk.

The Royals’ attack was always going- and is likely designed- to be by committee. They have no Barbra Banda, Temwa Chawinga, or Kiki Van Zanten (side note- wild that that’s a group I’m typing, big ups Kalyssa), so everyone has to chip in in the attacking third. And luckily, they have. Tatumn Milazzo, Lara Prasnikar, and Mina Tanaka have each scored two goals. Cloé Lacasse has two assists, and Kiana Palacios and CeCe Delzer each have one. Five players have created more than one chance per 90 minutes (Lacasse, Delzer, Prasnikar, Ana Tejada, and Brecken Mozingo). And five are averaging more than 2 shots on goal per 90 minutes (Tanaka, Tejada, Mozingo, Prasnikar, and Janni Thomsen).

Another great sign for the Royal’s attack is the success of their attacking set pieces. The Royals already have 2 (both from Milazzo), which is second most in the league thus far. And even the set pieces they don’t score on are looking really good. The deliveries are dangerous, and most of them get touched by a Royal’s head first. The short corners are great too. They’re clearly designed to get a better angle for delivery, and they avoid the cardinal sin of short corners: taking too long to deliver. There were many examples of this in the Chicago game; Kizer and Lacasse would come short, pass to each other until one got an opening, and would either serve it in from a more favorable angle, or take it to the endline for a cutback. Fast, succinct, and resulting in a good opportunity to serve to your teammates. That’s some good short-cornering!

However, there’s still more to do, especially with the squad’s finishing acumen. Six goals from 8.1 xG, especially when two of the goals were penalties, is pretty paltry. Only Gotham and Washington are underperforming their xG by more. The Chicago game was a perfect chasm of this: the Royals created a whopping 3.03 expected goals with 26 shots, but only 2.17 expected goals on target with their ten efforts on target. Yes, Katie Atkinson had a banner night, but the Royals didn’t make her work too hard for it. URFC is creating chances, but it’s key for them to finish these chances convincingly to hold onto their playoff position.

The biggest question mark for this team coming into this season was how the midfield would look. Last season, it felt like any midfield that didn’t include Claudia Zornoza had no chance at success. But this season, Coenraets has managed to create a midfield that isn’t reliant on the presence of one player. He’s used Ana Tejada, Dayana Pierre-Louis, Madison Hammond, Courtney Brown, and Aria Nagai as 6’s and 8’s, and Lara Prasnikar, Cece Delzer, and Mina Tanaka as 10’s. And, unlike last year, there isn’t a clear drop in quality when one particular player isn’t on the pitch. There is quality and depth in every position.

The first midfield of the season looks like the best on paper (which is a little ironic, since it had to change the day before the game due to minute restrictions). That midfield created the most chances, 5, and made a whooping 24 passes into the final third, over half of which were from Prasnikar. That group also did well to keep and progress the ball, all while winning their duels. But when Hammond got injured and Prasnikar had to play on the wing, there wasn’t a steep decline in quality like there often was last year. The chance creation, xA, and final third passes- though worse than the first week- were decent and stayed relatively consistent, even as personnel changed. They also continued to win their duels and make tackles in the midfield.

The real question now is: how does this midfield look with everyone available? This is, of course, hypothetical, but it is interesting to think about what Coenraets’ ideal eleven includes. You’d think Narumi Miura and Alex Loera, once she’s back, would be the 6 and 8 of choice, based on their history and the front office’s investment in them. But, Pierre-Louis and Tejada have looked positive in the last three games. They certainly don’t deserve to lose their place. Plus, how do you choose your 10? Prasnikar, Delzer, and Tanaka have all looked great there and Brown can play as a 10 as well.

URFC’s ideal midfield will likely form in the coming weeks, but for what it’s worth, I think my choice is Narumi in the 6, Pierre-Louis in the 8, and Prasnikar at the 10. Narumi is a defensive and responsible pair of hands who can shield the backline and keep the ball safe in the early buildup. It’s no secret that I think Pierre-Louis has been a slam dunk signing so far, and putting her in the 8 with Narumi behind her allows her to focus on creating and crashing the box without hindering the team’s rest defense. The 10 is the most flexible for me, but I have to give a shout to Prasnikar for her performance against Kansas City. A 10 who can create, score, and track back to help defend can be the most useful person on their team in such a transitional and physical league.

While most of the statistics so far this season point to an improved and ready to compete Utah Royals squad, there’s still one remnant from past seasons haunting the team: xG conceded. URFC has conceded the second most in the league- 8.5. I will asterisk that stat with the fact that the Royals have played both San Diego and Washington Spirit, who lead the league in xG due to their attacking dynamos. Those two games account for 5.63 of the Royals’ 8.5 xG conceded. Another 1.94 was conceded against the Kansas City Current at their home opener and, despite the mess they have going on, it is still hard to play them at CPKC Stadium.

But aside from the total of 8.5 xG conceded, there’s other warning signs that the Royals’ defense still isn’t completely clicking. The Royals have conceded 64 shots total, and the average xG of these shots is 0.13 xG. Generally, a “good” chance is worth 0.15 xG, so the average value of the shots you’re conceding being just about that is… not great. FotMob has also pinged the Royals as having conceded 9 big chances, almost 2 per game. Additionally, the Royals’ opponents have gotten 126 touches in URFC’s box. All that to say, the Royals are conceding big opportunities to their opponents. And no matter how much Mia Justus and/or Mandy McGlynn stand on their head, that’s not sustainable.

There seems to be two main issues that are causing the Royals’ defensive woes. First, the Royals are losing key battles in the midfield and wide areas. Without getting enough pressure on their opponents in those parts of the field, the Royals are allowing service into more dangerous areas. The best examples of this are all over the highlights of the Washington game. A lost duel in the midfield repeatedly turned into a pass into a dynamic forward, putting pressure on URFC’s backline. The second issue is, shockingly, that URFC plays too risky in the back and loses possession in key areas. I mean, they fully gifted San Diego a goal in their home opener. It’s also a constant symptom of Coenraets’ system, so I can’t let a blog post go by without mentioning it. I will give them ~some~ credit, though, I’ve noticed fewer and fewer mistakes as the weeks have gone on. But I’ll always be more for going long, winning possession in the midfield, then recycling if you want to build from the back.

Like I said above, the Royals’ defensive woes may be due to their strength of schedule. They’ve faced three hard teams and two quite easy ones, so it’s hard to know where exactly they stand when it comes to the mushy middle of the league. It’s also worth mentioning the personnel that has yet to appear this season. Paige Cronin has missed the first five games due to a rib injury. As captain, she’s a key leader and is a player that can be relied upon to track back and put out fires in the wide areas. Narumi Miura hasn’t debuted yet either. She is, in all likelihood, the best defender in the midfield on this roster. Nuria Rabano, who was one of the best left backs in the league after the summer break last year, suffered an ankle injury in preseason and is also just getting back on the pitch. So, there’s warning signs in the data for Coenraets’ defense, but it’s not time to hit the panic button… yet.

After this international break, the Royals embark on a key seven game stretch that could very well make or break their season:

I’ve had in my mind that shooting for 40 points** over the course of the season gets you pretty squarely in playoff contention. That’s about 1.3 points per game. Good news: the Royals are already above that pace, having gotten 1.4 points per game so far. But based on that math, it’s essential that the Royals get around nine points out of the next seven games. Conveniently, there’s three teams on that list that the Royals currently sit above in the table (Denver, Bay, Louisville). Even more conveniently, if you look at FotMob’s xG table, the Royals are above five of them (Angel City, Seattle, Denver, Louisville, Bay).

However, I’m getting the sense that there is going to be a significant “mushy middle” this year in the NWSL. I think San Diego will more or less cruise to the shield, and Chicago and Boston will struggle. Other than that, it really seems like anyone can get points off anyone. I see many routes to nine points in those seven games- whether it’s beating the teams below them in the table, winning the home games, or continuing my favorite Royals streak of beating both Portland and Bay in their home stadiums (plus 3 points elsewhere). But however it happens, the Royals have to continue the strong start to their season to stay in playoff contention.

**In 2025, you needed 36 out of the available 78 points (46.15%) to make the playoffs. In 2024, it took 32 points (41.03%). And in 2023, it took 31 out of the available 66 points (46.97%). If you average that out, you need around 44% of the available points, which would be 39.6 points this year. You’ll need more to get there comfortably, but being on pace to get 40 should keep you in the playoff discussion all season long.